Good signs for GDP as it rises 0.4%

GDP grew 0.4% in May with the construction industry finally showing positive growth

Over three months GDP is predicted to have grown 1% which was 1.4% more than the same three months in 2023, influenced heavily by a 1.1% rise in the services sector. It has outperformed what was initially expected by 0.2% and is the strongest three months of growth since January 2022.

Professor Joe Nellis, MHA’s economic advisor said: ‘The data shows that the economy is set to move into a higher gear after flatlining for a couple of years.’

For May alone the services sector grew by 0.3% after a similar rise in April. Eight of the 14 sub-sectors showed growth marking the fifth consecutive month of positive GDP.

The biggest factor in the positive growth came from the retail and repair of motor vehicles, which bounced back from a 1.8% drop in April.

Nellis said: ‘The new government will be breathing a great sigh of relief that the UK economy is at last showing signs of life again.

‘We believe there is now room for improved optimism for later in the year. Corporates and households were holding their breath ahead of the election, but now that is out of the way, we can expect to see modest but more sustainable growth going forward.’

Accountancy revenues fell by 2.2% in May, to £3.64bn, which is not the norm as trends show a pattern of small increases between April and May in previous years.

Julie Matheson, partner at Kingsley Napley said: ‘The Accounting industry has been battling against a series of headwinds, not least the freeze on activity in some sectors as a result of the election and uncertainty over reforms the Labour government will likely implement.

‘Firmwide leaders should now be studying the implications of proposed changes carefully to identify opportunities and threats both for their firms and their clients.’

There are positive signs for the construction industry as it grew by 1.9% in May, following a terrible few months of GDP data. The manufacturing sector also showed growth of 0.2%.

Ben Jones, lead economist at the CBI said: ‘Growth in May was driven by a rebound in sectors such as retail and construction, which were hit by poor weather earlier in the spring, recent months have seen activity creeping up across a wide range of sectors.

‘The new Labour government will benefit from some economic tailwinds going forward, with consumer confidence rising as lower inflation and strong wage gains support household incomes. However, many firms remain cautious about the near-term outlook.

‘While the outcome of the election will help dispel some of the recent uncertainty, it could take a turning of the interest rate cycle for the recovery to really bed in.’

Over the last three months, the construction sector declined by 0.7%, heavily impacted by the weather. New work was down by 0.9%, with maintenance also falling by 0.3% over this time.

However, for the month new work increased by 2.7% influencing the 1.9% rise overall, with eight out of the nine construction sub-sectors growing in May.

Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter said: ‘Labour’s first fiscal statement, which is expected no earlier than mid-September, should make both taxation and spending plans clearer.

‘This will allow businesses to better plan ahead and could in turn reinvigorate their want to invest. However, this would take time to feed through, and until there is a better understanding of what is to come, we are unlikely to see any meaningful acceleration in GDP growth.’

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